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December 6th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 6, 2011

5:00 pm EST:   It’s decision (moving time) for the market.  Time to ignore the 5-min chart squiggle count and focus on the bigger picture.   The SP-500 is in a major [3]-P1-C3 count and the bias is a strong upward move with small pull-backs.  Either the SP-500 is poised to break-out in a minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C1 wave (primary count) from here and head for 1300+ immediately or break-down in a minor 2 of major [3] wave (alternate count) and from the right shoulder for of an inverse head and shoulders (IHS) near the 1219/1229 pivot support.   In either case the SP-500 will be making new highs above 1300+ before the end of the 2011 year (see the 60-min chart below).  It’s only the short-term directioin that is in question.

The primary count is that wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C2 is underway headed for a target area of 1322, where (3)=4.22*(1).  Waves (1) 1267.73 and (2) 1250.0 are in place the past two days and now wave (3) up is above to get under-way in earnest.  Note: a break-down below the minor 2 low of 1243.34 would invalidate this primary count and confirm the alternate count.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave (a) of minor 2  of major [3]-P1-C2 is under-way headed below the 1245 pivot area.     Ultimately minor 2 should be a 3-wave move (a)-(b)-(c) that reaches at least the 1219/1229 pivot area, which is a 38%/50% retrace of minor 1.

Support is at the 1257 pivot and then the 1245 pivot.  Resistance is at the 200-day SMA of 1264 and then the 1291 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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