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December 5th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 5, 2011

5:55 pm EST:  The SP-500 made a new nominal high of 1266.73.  For the primary count 1266.73 marks the top of wave (5) of minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3, where (5)=0.62*(1).   The next move should be a 3 wave (a)-(b)-(c) drop to a minor 2 low.  The targets for minor 2 are 1226 (38% retrace), 1213 (50%), and 1199 (62%).  I suspect minor 2 will find support in the 1219/1229 pivot area, which will also maintain support above the key short-term moving average cluster of the 13-day EMA (1225), 34-day EMA (1222) and 50-day SMA (1213).

The alternate (blue) count is that wave (5) of minor 1 will extend to 1282, where (5)=(1).  A break below the wave (4) low of 1243.35 will invalidate this count and confirm the primary count.

Support is at the 1257 pivot and then the 1245 pivot.   Resistance is at the 200-day SMA of 1264 and then the 1291 pivot.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

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