November 28th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on November 28, 2011
5:55 pm EST: Here is the updated 5-min chart.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
5:10 pm EST: Closing above the 1187 pivot on a strong push EOD was good for the primary count and the bulls. For the primary count the move to 1197 this morning was wave (1) of minor 1 of major [3]. The drop to 1184 this afternoon was wave (2). And now a waves (3) and (5) upward should unfold towards the Inverse Head and Shoulder (IHS) target of 1238, which will complete minor 1 of major [3]. Breaking through the moving average ribbon band from 1206 to 1215 is a key for this minor 1 count and will turn the charts positive. Notice on the 4-hr chart that the MACD has hooked upward and is nearing a bull cross.
The alternate (blue) count is that there is one more price low for major [2] that needs to complete before major [3] can get underway. In this alternate count the move up today to 1197 was wave a of (4) of minor C of major [2]. The drop 1184 this afternoon was minor b of (4) and tomorrow there will be a wave c-(4) up to a target of 1208, where c=0.62*a. This wave (4) should be rejected at the 50-day SMA (1206) and upper line of the down channel on the 15-min chart. Once (4) is finished, the first target for wave (5) of minor C of major [2] is at 1152, where C=1.62*A (basis 1278). There is also a deeper target at 1122 or the 78.6% retrace of major [1]. Note that a move back above the wave (1) low of 1226.64 will invalidate this alternate count and confirm the primary count.
Support is at the 1187 and 117 pivots. Resistance is at the 50-day SMA of 1206 and then the 1219 and 1229 pivots.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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