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November 28th, 2011: Update 1 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on November 28, 2011

2:45 pm EST:  Here is a daily candle chart showing the similarity of the June- Sept 2010 price action to the Aug-Nov 2011 time frame.   The SP-500 price will need to jump above the compressed moving average ribbon band of 1205 to 1215 to help confirm the bullish move upward to 1400+ over the next few months.

SP-500 Daily Candles (11-28-11):

12:20 pm EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart.  For the primary count I’m expecting minor 1 of major [3] to break through the upper line of the down channel and the 50-day SMA at 1206 and head for the 1219/1229 pivot area.   As long as the SP-500 can hold above the 1168 pivot on any back-test, this primary count will look very solid.

For the alternate (blue) count, this rally for wave (4) of minor C of major [2]  will stall before breaching the upper line of the down channel at 50-day SMA at the 1206 area.  Note that a move above the wave (1) low of 1226.64 will invalidate the this count and confirm the primary count.  For the alternate (blue) count there are lower targets for the completion of minor C of major [2] at 1152, where C=1.62*A (basis 1178), which would also be close to a (5)=(1) target.   Also, there is the 78.6% retrace target at 1122.  A drop to 1222 would constitute a touch of the lower bull channel line that goes back to the March 2009 low fo 667.

SP-500 15-min chart (12:10 pm):

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