November 17th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on November 17, 2011
5:35 pm EST: Here is the updated 5-min chart.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
4:50 pm EST: Clearly market chose the path of the alternate count variant to the primary count where major [2]-P1-C3 was not complete at 1215 in early November, as it was only the minor A leg of major [2]. Then minor B leg played out as a symmetric triangle that lasted 2 weeks and kept traders guessing on which way the market would break. The consensus among must analyst and traders was an upward break, and thus MS market fool the most and headed lower aggressively. Once the minor B triangle broke down later yesterday, the minor C of major [2] wave down has been fast and furious, as the thrust out of triangle wave often is.
The primary count is that the (e) of minor B wave actually ended on Tuesday at 1264 and today completed a 5-wave drop for minor C of major [2] to 1209. The minor B wave triangle measured 51 points and the first triangle target was 1264-51 => 1213. Also, the 38% retrace of major [1] is at 1210. So today’s low of 1209 fits well with this count. The 50-day SMA support is also in this same area at 1205. What we should observe now is some consolidation above 50-daySMA of 1205 and then a minor 1 of major [3] move higher to recapture the 1245 and 1257 pivots, turning the charts positive again.
The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary count. It assumes the (e) wave of the minor B triangle did not complete until late yesterday afternoon at 1260. Thus, the SP-500 is still in the wave (3) of minor C of major [2] wave and headed for a target area of 1197/1200. From there a small wave (4) consolidation below the 1219 pivot and then a final move lower to complete minor C are 1182, where C=A. The 1184 level is also the 50% retrace of major [1] and there is pivot support at 1177/1187, that fits well with this count.
Support is at the 50-day SMA of 1205, then the 1187 pivot and 1177 pivot. Resistance is at the 1219 and 1229 pivots.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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