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November 16th, 2011: Update 2 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 16, 2011

4:45 pm EST:  Primary count is that wave (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 still has/had some more work to do and it now targeting the 78.6%/88.6% retrace area of 1236/1232.  This 1136/1232 area corresponds to the lower (pink) support line that is part of a large symmetric triangle that many technical analyst are showing.   Those calling this consolidation period a large symmetrical triangle will call this 1236/1232 support  the end wave E of the triangle and the forecast would be that the market would zoom higher to 1300+.  This agrees with my primary count in terms of the next large directional move being higher, but not the wave count.    In either case a move below the 1226.64 level will invalidate both my primary count and the large triangle count of many other analyst.

The alternate (blue) count, as was modified this afternoon (see below), is that this consolidation is a smaller symmetric triangle (yellow lines) for minor B of major [2]-P1-C3.   The thrust lower late this afternoon off of the (e) wave of minor B high of 1259.1 was the beginning of an impulse minor C wave headed lower to 1180/1200.   Wave (1) of the minor C wave, could end around the 1229 pivot and wave (2) bounce to the 1245 would be next, before wave (3) drops below 1215.

Support is at the 1229 pivot and then the 1219 pivot.   Resistance is at the 1245 pivot and then the 1257 pivot.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

 

3:00 pm EST:  It’s about to get really ugly for the bears or bulls.  The primary count remains unchanged.  However,  I have revised the alternate (blue) count to show minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 as a small triangle that has been going on since the Nov 5th low of 1215.  This fits alot better with the recent price action and allows for a rapid 78 point drop to the target area of 1180 to 1200 in a C wave move lower to complete major [2].   This alternate (blue) count drop to 1180/1200 would fool a lot of bulls and bears.

SP-500 15-min chart (2:50 pm):

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