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November 9th, 2011: Update 1 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on November 9, 2011

1:05 pm EST:  Looking at the daily chart, we have bear cross developing on the MACD and Full-STO oscillators.  If the mid-channel green mid-line  fails near 1240, then it will allow for a test of the 34-day EMA near 1225 (i.e. between the 1219/1229 pivots) for the variant of the primary count where minor 2 drops lower in an expanded flat or the alternate (blue) count with major [2] drop down to the 50-day SMA near 1200.

SP-500 Daily Chart (1:00 pm):

12:25 pm EST:  For the primary count with today’s large drop to 1239.58, it looks like minor 2 of major [3] was not finished.  Minor 2 of major [3] must stay above the major [2] low of 1215.42 to remain valid.   It looks like minor 2 is playing out as some type of irregular flat (i.e. either running or expanded).    The running flat scenario would have minor 2 complete at 1239.58 and the expanded flat scenario would have minor 2 testing the 1219/1229 pivot support.  The 1219/1229 pivot support for minor 2 would maintain the upward channel line on the 15-min and 60-min charts.

With the drop from 1278 to 1239 this morning, the alternate (blue) count is now much more likely.   The 1278 area was the 78.6% retrace of minor A for minor B of major [2].   Minor C of major [2] is in progress now with wave (1) complete at 1239.58 and wave (1) testing the 38% (1254) to 50% (1259) area, before wave (3) breaks below 1215.  The target for minor C of major [2] to complete is 1201, where C=A.  This would also back test the rising 50-day SMA.  Note: there is also a Head and Shoulders with head at 1278 and neck-line at 1240, that measures to 1202, if the 1240 neck-line breaks.  This fits well the alternate (blue) count.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (12:00 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (12:00 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (12:30 pm):

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