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November 8th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 8, 2011

5:00 pm EST:   Another day that went as forecast based on the primary count.  The SP-500 back tested the 1257 pivot support this morning (as I called in the morning update) and then moved higher to close above the very important 200-day SMA of 1273.

Primary count is that the SP-500 is in the heart of a wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3, headed for a first target of 1304, where (3)=1.62*(1).   There are even higher targets for wave (3) at 1334, where (3)=2.62*(1).   After back-testing the 1257 pivot support for wave (2) low at 1255 this morning, the market surged higher this afternoon.  On the 5-min chart there is a potential intra-day “gap of recognition” near 1263 this afternoon.   Should the SP-500 push higher to 1304 or 1334, without filling this 1263 gap, it will be confirmed.

The alternate (blue) count keeps needing revisions as the SP-500 moves higher.  I have moved the minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 target up to the 76.8% retrace at 1276.  But if minor B moves any higher than 1276, we’ll have to watch for the potential of minor B reaching 1293 and resulting in a major [2] flat scenario that will re-test 1215 in a minor C drop.   This count requires a move below today’s low of 1254.99 in order to gain some traction.

Support is at the 200-day SMA of 1273 and then the 1257 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1291/1303/1315 pivot cluster.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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