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October 4th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 4, 2011

6:55 pm EST:    Big late day reversal with positive divergence on the McClellan ($NYMO) and a triggered VIX sell/Equity Buy signal.  This could indicate that an intermediate term bottom of PA of Cycle 2 is in place with the alternate count.

Primary count (red) is that today’s drop to 1075 completed minor 3 of major [3]-PC of Cycle 2 and the late day bounce to 1124 is minor 4, where (c)=1.62*(a).   This count remains valid until the minor 1 low of 1150.40 is breached above.   Once minor 4 is complete, I have a target of 1049 for minor 5 of major [3]-PC of Cycle 2.  And major [5]-PC of Cycle 2 should reach a minimum 50% retrace of Cycle 1 at 1019.

For the alternate count (blue) I have labeled 1079.32 at the bottom of minor 5 of major [5] of PA of Cycle 2.   I’m expecting a PB of Cycle 2 rally up to 1250 to 1300 over the next several months.

Support is at the 1105 pivot and then the 1087 and 1061 pivots.  Resistance is at the 1136 pivot.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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