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October 4th, 2011: Update 1 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on October 4, 2011

12:00 am EST:   A new low of 1074.77 was hit early this morning and then a bounce to 1199.   For the primary count this was the wave (3) of minor 3 low and the bounce to 1199 was likely wave (4) of minor 3 and now we would should continue to see more downward selling pressure within the channel towards the target of 1056 for the conclusion of wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-PC of Cycle 2. 

For the alternate count (blue) I have minor 3 of major [5]-PA of Cycle 2 complete at 1174.77 today.  I’m now looking for a couple does of sideways to upward consolidation below the 1105 pivot for minor 4.  Since the ending diagonal scenario is invalid, if the SP-500 moves above the minor 1 low of 1114, then we can declare [5]-PA of Cycle 2 ended at 1175.  If we stay below the 1105 pivot for minor 4, then I think minor 5 of major [5]-PA of Cycle 2 will complete above the 1061 pivot sometime late this week or early next week.  From the Primary A (PA) low we’ll have a significant rally for Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 into the year-end and early 2012.  The PB rally could carry up to 1250 to 1300 area.

SP-500 5-min chart (12:00 pm):

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