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Sept 23rd, 2011: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 23, 2011

5:15 pm EST:  Today went pretty much as forecast, a minor A wave up to 1140 followed by a minor B wav e consolidation Zig-Zag or triangle around the 1136 pivot area.  Early next week I’m looking for a push up in minor C of major [2]-PC to at least 1154, where C=A.  The 38% fib retrace for major [2]-PC is also at 1154, with higher fibs are 1168 (50%) and 1180 (62%).  From there the SP-500 should start a long hard fall in major [3]-PC down toward the July 2010 lows of 1010.  Ultimately PC of Cycle 2 should end between 930 and 1010 something in late Oct to mid-Nov.

I have added in an alternate (blue) count that assumes the market is very close to bottoming for Primary A of Cycle 2.  The DJIA and Russel-2000 have already made new lows this week below Aug 8th/9th and only the SP-500 is yet to confirm that new low.  So, it is possible with the bearish sentiment running at near 50% compared to bullish sentiment at 25%, that a significant bottom is very near.  Maybe we just need one more smaal push lower to 1087/1061 area finish of Primary A of Cycle in the next week or two.  For this count the recent high of 1220 is major [4]-PA and ongoing move lower is major [5]-PA.  I have 1114 labeled as the end of minor 3 of major [5]-PA and the current bounce as minor 4 of major [5]-PA.  For minor 4 I have the same 1154 target for early next week, but it is possible that minor 4 is complete as the end of today and minor 5 of major [5]-PA will be begin on Monday. 

Support is at the 1136 pivot then the 1105 pivot.  Resistance is a the 1168/1177/1187 pivot cluster.

Thansk and have a great weekend.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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