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August 24th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on August 24, 2011

11:45 pm EST:  This mornings rapid rise to the 1175.23 was a test of the 13-day EMA, that will typically cap all bear market rallies (as it did at 1208 on 8/17).

The primary (red/white) count is at 1175 ended wave (3) of minor of major [A]-PB.  We are now in a wave (4) consolidation phase before wave (4) of minor 3 reaches the 1192 target later this week.  Holding above the 1141.69 minor 2 low is critical for this count.

The alternate (blue) count is at that 1175 capped the end of minor 2 of major [5]-PA.  So now we are looking for a move down toward the 1105 pivot for minor 3 of major [5]-PA.  This move could start very slow and gain momentum, particularly if the Fed meeting on Friday disappoints the market.  The ultimate target for major [5]-PA is 1095, where [5]=[1].   A break below 1141.69 and then below the 1136 pivot would likely confirm this alternate (blue) count.

SP-500 5-min chart (11:35 am):

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