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Aug 22nd, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on August 22, 2011

12:05 pm EST:  For the primary count the triangle minor 4 count is out with the new low today below 1222.  Minor 4 ended at 1154.54 as originally labeled and we have put in a (1) at 1122 and (2) at 1146 of minor 5 of major [5]-PA.   For the looks of things based on today’s price action, it’s possible that minor 5 of major [5]-PA will complete as a bullish falling wedge of it’s own (inside the larger PA bullish falling wedge) down towards the 1095 target for [5]=[1].   This bullish wedge  for minor 5-[5]-PA could end at any time and price could move rapid upward.

And for the alternate (blue) count, minor 1 of major [5]-PA end Friday at 1122 and today’s move up to 11246 was minor 2.  Now things should accelerate quickly down toward a target of 1040 for minor 3 of major [5]-PA (see the 15-min chart).

SP-500 5-min chart (12:00 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (12:00 pm):

10:50 am EST:  A key to watch is the down sloping line of the large bullish falling wedge of Primary A (PA) on the 60-min chart.  Once this upper wedge line is broken to the upside it should confirm Primary B (PB) is underway.  Today the upper wedge line is at about 1185.

SP-60 min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=342d95ed-7856-4dda-92d7-19efa580b0e1

SP-600 60-min chart (10:45 am):

10:35 am EST:  Primary (white/red) count is that minor 4 of major [5]-PA is evolving into a contracting triangle.  We are in the (c) leg up now that must stay below the (a) wave high of 1154.54.   There will be wave (d) and (e) around the 1136 pivot yet to come before the triangle breaks down in a major [5] drop toward 1095, where [5]=[1] to complete Primary A (PA).  In this primary count, PA will form a double bottom near the 1087/1105 pivot support.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [5]-PA ended on Friday at 1122.05.  This move up is a minor 2 that should end between 38/50/62% or 1153/1165/1175.  From the minor 3 down should be a nasty 139 point drop (i.e. minor 3=1.62*minor 1) down to 1014/1026/1036.  Ultimately, I’m looking for major [5]-PA to end between 1000 and 1025 with this alternate count, which is the 50% retrace of Cycle 1.

FYI, any move back over the 1168/1175/1187 pivot cluster will indicate that major [5]-PA truncated at 1222 and Primary B (PB) is underway headed for 1230/1280 or higher.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:24 am):


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