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August 17th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on August 17, 2011

11:00 am EST:  It’s also important to keep an eye on the bigger picture charts here at this critical juncture between the two counts.  As can be seen on the 60-min chart the major [2]-PA wave from the June 15th low of 1258 to the July 7th high of 1356 last about 3 weeks.  Drawing a parallel channel off the [1]-[3] line to form a [2]-[4] line you can see major [4] could rise to the 1219/1229 pivot area without issue.  And remember so far we have only had about 1.5 weeks of major [4]-PA in time, so we could see another 1.5 weeks of slow melt-up for [4].  Ultimately [4]-PA can’t break above the [1]-PA low of 1258, but that is of little help since I’m expecting [1]-P5 fo the alternate count to reach this same 1251 area.  Also, you can see the two counts laid out on the 4-hr chart as well.

SP-500 60-min chart (10:38 am):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

10:30 am EST:   Primary (red) count has (4) of minor C or major [4]-PA ending at 1181 yesterday and this move up as the final wave (5) with target between (5)=(1)=1206 and (5)=1.62*(1)=>1221.  From there major [5]-PA should drop down to form a double bottom near 1101.   There is potential large bearish rising wedge here that should break down.   And the 13-day EMA at 1206 is a typical the bear/bull count dividing line.  So a sustained move above 1206 and the alternate (blue) count will likely play out.

The alternate (blue) count has minor 4 of major [1]-P5 as a running flat between 1189 and 1181 over the last week.  Minor 5 of major [1]-P5 is underway with a target area of 1251, where Minor 5=1.  This count is following the nice bull channel upward.

Support is at the 1187 pivot and resistance at the 1219 then 1229 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:18 am):

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