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Aug 15th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 15, 2011

6:25 pm EST:  As I indicated today, the primary count for major [4]-PA-C2 while theoretically OK until 1258, is getting very stretched.  The 1205 area was hit today is where C=1.23*A which is just above the 38% retraceof major [3]-PA at 1198.  And C=1.62*A area is 1233 which is at 50% retrace of major [3]-PA at 1229.  However at 1233, the drop down for major [5]=[1] would only reach 1120 and would not breach below the [3]-PA low of 1101.  So I think this 1205 area has to be about it for major [4]-PA before I need to shift to a primary count where PA-C2 bottomed 1101 as a 3-wave move and this is a 3-wave [X]-PB-C2 wave up to 1236/1268 for the primary to be followed by a 3-wave move down to the 1019 area for PC-C2.  I tooks like wave (5) of C-[4]-PA might have put in a small ending diagonal today, so we could begin to see some downside tomorrow.  And major [5]-PA wave will need to break back through the 1168/1177/1187 pivot cluster to convince me that we are going to see a new low below 1101 to complete PA-C2 before heading much higher.  If major [4]-PA-C2 ends here at 1205, then the [5]-PA-C2 target is now 1092, where [5]=[1].

For the alternate (blue) count, I have the wave count as 3-iii-(3) of minor 3-[1]-P5.  So more immediate upside towards 1233 should unfold over this week as the melt-up continues.  Ultimately I’m looking for major [1]-P5-C1 to reach about 1275 before major [2]-P5-C1 correction back down to the 1187 pivot area.

Support is at the 1187 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1219 and 1229 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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