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Aug 11th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on August 11, 2011

2:45 pm EST:  Potential Weekly Hammer candle above the 200-week SMA of 1155.  Notice the Nov 2008 weekly hammer led to a 200 point SP-500 6-week rally from 750 to 950.

SP-500 Weekly Candle:

1:40 pm EST:  Update 5-min chart.  Primary (red) count would now have to be a Zig-Zig for minor 4 on the way towards 1189 , where (c)=(a), or it could end anywhere in the 1168/1177/1187 pivot resitance band.  From there the new minor 5-[3]-PA target is 1073 to 1090.   And for the 1st alternate (blue) count this looks like the start of a 5-wave impulse for minor C-[X]-PB toward the 1217 to 1236 target zone.

SP-500 5-min chart (1:36 pm):

1:15 pm EST:  And here is the updated 4-hr chart with MACD turning up.

SP-500 4-hr chart (1:10 pm):

 

12:30 pm EST:   Here is an updated Daily chart with 3 scenarios laid out.  Two are for Cycle 2 of SCV (i.e. primary red and 1st alt blue) and I have discussed these two Cycle 2 scenarios a lot lately.  But what about my “secret” 2nd alt (green) count that P1 of the bull market was at 956, P2 at 869, P3 at 1317 and now P4 at 1101 (about a 50% retrace of P3).  This would mean that new P5 high for this Cycle 1 of SCV bull market is still ahead of us in early 2012 at about 1390, where P5=P1.  Any “hope” buyers of the 1101 low here looking for 1390 in the next 3 to 5 months?  Need to move back about the 200-day SMA and stay there to give this count a chance.  Keep it secret for now. 🙂

SP-500 Daily Chart (12:28 am):

11:00 am EST:  Primary count (red) could be a minor 4 of [3]-PA triangle instead of the flat.  Both scenarios are shown in red on the 5-min chart below.   This move up today would be wave (2) of minor 5-[3]-PA or the (c) leg of the minor 4 triangle of [3]-PA.  In either case, it can’t exceed the 1171.77 high and remain valid.  So if we move above 1171.77, then the alternate count (blue) should play out to the 1217 to 1236 area for minor C-[X]-PB.  If the minor 4 flat of triangle plays out we are looking for a fresh new low for minor 5-[3]-PA below 1101 on Friday or Monday.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1b9c2bb2-bb35-4c1c-86fb-341fdb087f0d

SP-500 5-min chart (10:56 am):

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