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Aug 5th, 2011 – Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 5, 2011

Sat 8-6-11, 1:30 pm EST:   Here is the updated 4-hour chart with the 3-3-3, major degree [A]-[B]-[C]-[X]-[A]-[B]-[C] for PA-PB-PC of Cycle 2 alternate count (blue).  In this alternate count PA bottomed at 1168 on Friday, Aug 5th (or will bottom early next week near the 1136 pivot) and PB is underway with a target of 1269 (50% retrace of PA) to 1293 (62% retrace of PA).  After PB tops out, PC will head lower to the target zone of 1019/930 (50%/62% retrace of Cycle 2).  If PC=1.62*PA, then I get Cycle 2 ending at 940 off a PB high of 1269.  A PB move to 1269 would be a back test of the 200-day SMA that is current rising at 1286 but flattening out.

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

7:55 pm EST:   I just got back to the hotel for a quick check on the markets before heading back out to dinner.  Wow, what and ugly day again.  The drop to the 1168 pivot is worse than the drop to 1187 pivot I was forecasting.  Shows you just how much fear there is in this market.  This minor 3 of major [3]-PA has sliced through all pivot supports like a hot knife through butter.  Very impressive impulsive wave action in a bear market.  The VIX and SPX both closed again outside their Bollinger Bands and this indicates no sign of a let up in the down move.  It’s possible that minor 3 -[3]-PA ended today (primary count), but it’s also very possible today’s bounce to 1215 was just wave a wave iv-(5) of minor 3 and there will be more downside early next week below the 1168 pivot (alt count blue).  If 1168 did end minor 3, then minor 4 should bounce up to the 1236, where (c)=(a) and it’s a 38% retrace of the minor 3 drop.  Today’s bounce to 1215 was (a) and the drop to 1289 late day was (b).  I’m expecting (c) to reach 1236, where (c)=(a) early next week to complete minor 4-[3]-PA.  From there minor 4 of major [3]-PA will likely head for the 1136 pivot area.

Support is at the 1168/1177/1187 pivot cluster, then the 1136 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1219/1229 pivot cluster, then 1245/1257.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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