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Aug 1st, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 1, 2011

6:05 pm EST:  I’m very close tonight to declaring (as the Primary Count) the 2+ year bull market P5 of Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V ending at 1371 on May 2nd, 2011 and Cycle 2 down has begun with a target of 950 to 1050 over the next year or two  However since the SP-500 remains above the P4 low of 1258, theoretically from E-wave theory major [2]-P5 has not produced a rule violation.   Also, on the 4-hr and Daily charts, you can see my light blue lower bull channel line (from the March 2009 low) has not been breached.   So we’ll give the bulls the benefit of the doubt a lit while longer.

Today we saw the 13-day EMA (1312) bear cross the 34-day EMA (1314), this has been a reliable signal for an intermediate term trend change.  However, we also triggered a VIX Sell (equity buy) signal at the close as the VIX closed back inside it’s upper BB (confirmation comes at the close tomorrow).   The VIX signal may only a short-term (few days) signal, as discussed today.  I will important to watch how the VIX reacts at the mid-BB line (19.50 today).

I have eliminated carrying both a primary and 1st alternate count.  At this point, if the SP-500 is to make a new high above 1371 in the next month, it will more than likely be a weak new high at 1372/1386 in an Ending Diagonal (ED) conclusion to P5 of Cycle 1.  Remember and ED is a 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so each major wave of P5 will be a 3-wave minor A-B-C.  Primary count (white) is that minor C of major [2]-P5 ended at 1274.73 today.  Minor A of major [3]-P5 is underway with target above the 1315 pivot.  I have wave (1) ending at 1288.62 today.  We are in the process of a wave (2) pull-back (50%) to 1282 and then wave (3) will target 1305, where (3)=1.62*(1).  A break below today’s low of 1274.73 will very likey confirm alternate red count.

The alternate count (red) is that wave 2-iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-PA ended today at 1288.63.  Wave 3-iii-(3) is underway headed for 1254.  The target for major [3]-PA is the 1229 to 1245 pivot area.    The target for the completion of Primary A (PA) is the large head and shoulders target of 1145 (see the daily and 4-hr charts).

Support is at the 1257 and 1245 pivots.  Resistance at the 1291 and 1303 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hhr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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