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July 29th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on July 29, 2011

2:55 pm EST:  The SP-500 price will need to clear the 1311.10 level intra-day to put an official end to this down wave (5) of minor C-[2]-P5.   The wave (4) high was 1316.32 and the first wave i-(5) low was 1311.10.   This 1311.10 level will need to be breached to confirm wave (5) is over and major [2]-P5 has bottomed.  So far I only see an a-b-c move up to 1304.14 today.   This leave open the possibility of a move to the minor C=1.22*A target of 1374.  And since the C=A target of 1287 was exceeded on the drop to 1282.86 today, this is still a distinct possibility.

We should continue to monitor the VIX Sell (SPX buy) signal into the close today.  A close of the VIX daily candle below the upper BB (at 24.37 right now with VIX at 24.83), would help confirm the low of 1282.86 is the end of (5)-C-[2]-P5.

SP-500 5-min chart (2:52 pm):

10:30 am EST:  We have what could be 5-waves down to 1282.86 for the completion of the wave (5)-C-[2]-P5 low.  However, it won’t be confirmed until we get the VIX Sell (equity buy) signal at the close today.  We need to see the VIX close back inside the upper BB, which is at 24.30.  The VIX is right now at 24.94.  If we don’t get it, then the 2nd alternate (red) count could be the proper count here and we are headed for 1249, the 1257 pivot area, early next week.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:24 am):

SP-500 15-min chart (10:35 am):

SP-500 60-min chart (10:35 am):

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