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July 25th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on July 25, 2011

12:00 pm EST:  And here is how the two scenarios for the end of P5 look on the 4-hour chart.

SP-500 4-hr chart (11:55 am):

11:50 am EST:  The primary count is still valid.  The drop to 1331.09 this morning would be the end of minute (4) of minor 1 of major [3]-P5.   The target for (5) would be 1356, where (5)=(1).   After minor 1-[3] completes at 1356, I’d expect roughly a 38% retrace to 1332 for minor 2 of [3]-P5 before a blast-off to new highs well above 1371 in minor 3 of [3]-P5.  This primary count is the traditional Primary Wave 5 (P5) impulse count that is headed to a it’s conclusion in the 1440 to 1460 area which is the large IHS target.  This P5 impulse could last in the Oct-Nov time frame.

The alternate count (blue) is that Primary Wave 5 (P5) is going to trace out an Ending Diagonal (EOD) that tops in the 1372 to 1386 pivot area and end much sooner in time.  Recall that a ED is made of 3-3-3-3-3 waves or a series of 5 large A-B-C waves.   This alternate count has the move up to 1347 as minor A of major [3]-P5.  And now we are looking for a drop to about 1315/1322 for minor B.   From the 1315/1322 area, minor C of major [3]-P5 should head toward the 1372 pivot before major [4]-P5 corrects back slightly below the major [1]-P5 high of 1356.  Ultimately major [5]-P5 will end sometime in mid-to-late August at between 1372 and 1386 (see the 60-min chart).

So the separation between the top counts is that the primary is looking for a move up to 1356 the next day or two and the alternate is looking for a move down to 1315/1322.  A move above 1347.00 will validate the primary and move below 1331.09 will validate the alternate count.  Both counts will eventually end higher than the May 2nd top of 1371, with the primary count ending significantly higher that 1371.

SP-500 5-min chart (11:45 am):

SP-500 15-min chart (10:45 am):

SP-500 60-min chart (10:45 am):

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