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July 15th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 15, 2011

5:00 pm EST:  Did we put in the major [2]-P5 the past two days?  Maybe.  Today’s strong close was just what the bulls needed to set the stage for a furious rally next week for the beginning of major [3]-P5.    It certainly puts the primary count for more downside price movement in question and the new alternate count the major [2]-P5 low is inplace at 1306.61 is now on at least equal footing with the primary count.

The move above 1315.02 busted the primary count (white) wave (4) triangle for minor C of major [2]-P5.  The only count that works now is that the last two days were waves i and ii of (3) down.   So Monday should begin the wave iii-(3) down toward the 1292 to 1295 target area (where C=A and 62% retrace) for the completion of minor C of major [2]-P5.  This primary count would basically complete a bullish falling wedge to form the right shoulder for a larger IHS that targets the 1440 pivot to complete Primary Wave 5 (P5) over next few months.

The alternate count (blue) is that 1306.61 was indeed the end of major [2]-P5 at the 1307 target area (where C=062*A and 50% retrace).   The last two days have been waves i and ii of (1) of minor 1 of major [3]-P5.  Beginning the Monday the SP-500 should move aggressively higher in a wave iii-(1) toward 1334, where iii=2.62*i.  This alternate count signals the official kick-off Major [3]-P5 up that will exceed the old 1371 May 2nd, 2011 high and will be the last significant rally of the 2+ year bull market.

Support is at the 1315, 1303, and 1291 pivots.  Resistance is at 1320 and then 1330.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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