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July 14th, 2011: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 14, 2011

5:30 pm EST:  FreeStockCharts.com was down all day (and still has corrupted price data from today) and I could not follow the counts intra-day.   However, today the alternate count (blue) was eliminated with move below 1313.33.

The primary count (white) remains that the SP-500 is putting in the finishing touches on minor C of major [2]-P5.   It is very possible that today’s low of 1306.51 ended minor C,  where C=0.62*A and the 50% retrace of Major [1]-P5.   I have 1315.59 marked as the wave (1) of minor C low, with the move up to 1326.88 today at wave (2).  The drop to 1306.51 looks like wave (3).  However, there was a bounce to about 1316.xx this afternoon that over-lapped wave (1) slightly and thus causes a problem with this count.  So either 1306.61 was the end of minor C or wave (4) of minor C could be a contracting triangle and bounce to 1316 was only wave-a of (4) and wave-e of (4) will finish sligtly below the wave (1) low of 1315.59.  So now we have a wave-b of (4) drop into the close today and tomorrow could see a choppy day with wave-c up, wave-d down and wave-e up to complete the triangle before wave (5) drops to the 1292, C=A target and the 62% retrace of Major [1]-P5.  That would be my preferred count right now, with the 1306.51 low today as the end of Major [2]-P5 as my alternate count.  In either case the major [2]-P5 low very near and a major [3]-P5 wave upward is next that should take out the May 2nd, 2011 high of 1371.

Support is at the 1303 and 1291 pivots and resistance at the 1315 pivot.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD): 

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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