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July 8th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 8, 2011

4:40 pm EST:  The drop from 1356 to 1334 today hit my target of a 23% retrace for minor 4 precisely.  So my top count is the minor 4 of [1]-P5 triangle with the (a) low at 1333.71 today.  As for the rest of the possible counts here, my thinking after the close today is the same as intra-day:

Primary count (white):  Minor 4 of [1]-P5 underway.

  • Contracting Triangle: First target 1331 to 1334 (23% retrace and minute (4) of minor 3 low).  The drop to 1333.71 would be the (a) leg of a contracting triangle for this count.  The rise towards a 50% retrace of 1345 is a (b) leg, to be followed by (c), (d) and (e) that must remain above 1333.71 to stay valid.  Once the triangle is complete minor 5 of major [1]-P5 should target 1374.
  • Zig-Zag: Second target 1315 to 1321 (38% retrace and lower light blue channel edge and pivot support).   The drop to 1333.71 was (a), the rise toward a 50% retrace of 1345 is (b) and next will be a (c) leg drop to 1323, where (c)=(a) to complete minor 4.  Once the ZZ is complete the target for minor 5 of major [1]-P5 is 1361/1363.

Alternate count (blue):  Major [2]-P5 retrace underway.

  • First target 1307 (50% retrace of major [1]-P5 and 1303 pivot support)
  • Second target 1295 (62% retrace of major [1]-P5 and 1291 pivot support)

Support is at 1331, then the 1315 pivot.  Resistance is at 1345, then 1356 and the 1363 pivot.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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