June 23rd, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on June 23, 2011
5:15 pm EST: Looks like they set the bear trap again today with yet another deep minor 2 retrace (see the similarity on the 4-hr chart with the August ’10 1040 low and Nov ’10 1173 low.). This deep minor 2 of major [1]-P5 retrace from 1298 to 1263 likely washed out many bulls and trapped many bears today. Now it’s time to gun the market higher and make the bulls chance and the bears suffer. The next time the perma-bears cover the SP-500 will like stand near 1440 in Dec 2011 and they will wonder watch just happened, again! 🙂
Primary count (white) is that 1262.87 ended minor 2-[1]-P5 this morning and waves i-ii of (1) of minor 3-[1]-P5 where put in this afternoon. Wave iii-(1) looks to be underway with a target area of 1288/1291, where iii=1.62*i. I’m looking for (1) of minor 3 to reach the 1298/1303 area before a wave (2 ) pull-back to 1291. A break above 1298/1303 will likely be reserved for (3) of minor 3 and will have a target of 1338, which corresponds to an inverse head and shoulders target. The primary count remains valid unless 1258.07 is breached intra-day.
The alternate count (blue) is that today’s drop to 1262.87 was wave (1) of minor 5-[C]-P4 and the strong bounce to 1284.24 was wave (2), for a 62% retrace of wave (1). Wave (3) will need to start dropping immediately tomorrow and head for the 1245 pivot area. The final target for minor 5 of this count is 1239, where minor 5-1. This alternate count remains valid until the minor 4 high of 1298.61 is breached intra-day. Note: the QQQ did breach yesterday’s minor 4 high and the Nasdaq is very close to doing the same. This could be yet another the indicator that the primary count is the correct one.
Support is at the 1257 pivot. Resistance is at the 1291 and 1303 pivots.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-mini chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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