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June 17th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on June 17, 2011

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2:00 pm EST:  And here is the updated 5-min chart with a potential bull channel.

SP-500 5-min chart (1:56 pm):

1:45 pm EST:  Looks like wave (1) did indeed end at 1279.82 this morning for a 22 point move off the 1258 low.  The typical wave (2) targets are 1268 (50% retrace) and 1266 (62% retrace), but any level above 1258.07 keep the primary count valid.

Keep a close eye on the VIX.  The Upper BB has moved to 22.06 and the VIX is at 22.05 as I type.  The close today is what matters.

SP-500 15-min chart (1:37 pm):

12:00 pm EST:   Any remember these very important VIX Sell, SPX Buy signals from the past year?  We have the potential for another one today!  🙂    Let’s see if the VIX can close below 21.84.

VIX vs SP-500 Daily Chart (11:54 am):

 11:15 am EST:  Updated 15-min chart.

SP-500 15-min chart (11:12 am):

11:05 am EST:    Primary count (white) looks to be in a wave iv-(1), possibly a triangle with target of 1283.   From there we should get a wave (2) pull-back to between 1267 and 1273, before a blast-off in wave (3) of minor 1-[1]-P5 toward teh 1303 to 1315 pivot area.

Alternate count (blue) looks to have completed wave (2) of minor 5-[C]-P3 at a nice 62% retrace (typical of a wave 2) that remained inside the large falling wedge pattern.  I’m looking for a wave (3) drop to just below the 1245 pivot area if this wedge can’t be broken above today or Monday.

We have to remain a little cautious here until the falling wedge pattern is broken above.   And I would like to get the daily VIX back inside it’s upper BB at the close, to trigger the VIX sell, equity buy set-up going into next week.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:57 am):

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