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June 15th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on June 15, 2011

12:15 am EST:  Updated 5-min chart.  The primary (white) and 1st alternate (blue) counts are getting very stretched here but are still OK unless 1265.64 is breached.   The 2nd alternate count (red) is looking pretty good and we might get a flush out to the 1257 pivot area this afternoon.  I have update the new fib retraces on all three counts based on the new intra-day low of 1268.96.

SP-500 5-min chart (12:12 am):

10:25 am EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart the same options.

SP-500 15-min chart (10:22 am):

10:05 am EST:  Here is the updated 5-min chart with the options laid out. 

The primary (white) is that this mornings drop is a wave (2) of minor 1-[1]-P5 that has hit the 62% retraced of 1276 thus far.  If 1276 holds up as the wave (2) low, then the initial target for wave (3) is 1318.  The IHS pattern with head at 1266 and neckline at 1293, would target 1320, so it agrees with this count.

The first alternate (blue) is that today’s drop to 1276 was an (x) wave of a double ZZ for minor 4-[C]-P4.  The (y) wave target is 1303, where (y)=(w).

The second alternate (red) is a variant of the first alternate where minor 4-[C]-P4 completed at 1292.50 yesterday as a single ZZ.  The drop to 1276 was wave (1) of minor 5-[C] and the bounce to 1282 to 1284 is wave (2).  The wave (3) target is the 1257 pivot, where (3)=1.62*(1).  The complete of minor 5-[C]-P4 is expected to be in the 1245 to 1257  pivot range.  The 200-day SMA is at 1255 this morning.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:02 am):

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