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June 14th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 14, 2011

4:10 pm EST:     The primary count (white) is that wave iii-(1) of minor 1-[1]-P5 reached 1292.50 today.  The target from yesterday was 1290, where iii=1.62*i.   I’m looking for a wave iv-(1) pull back to between 1282 (38% retrace) and 1286 (23% retrace) and then a wave v-(1) move up of about 12 points (v=i) to 1294 to 1298.   A break below the wave i-(1) high of 1277.04 would mean at that all of wave (1) is complete and wave (2) is underway.   The wave (2) retrace must remain above the 1265.64 low to be a valid count.  A drop back below 1265.64 would mean the alternate count is playing out.

The alternate count (blue) completed the first a-b-c or (w) of minor 4-[C]-P4 of a double Zig-Zag (ZZ) at 1292.50.   That cound be all of the move higher for minor 4 in only a single ZZ, but I think there will be an (x) wave lower and second ZZ back up to complete minor 4 by the end of the week.   The 50% retrace target for (x) is 1279.   From there I’m expecting (y) to reach 1296 [(y)=0.62(w)] to 1306 [(y)=(w)].  This alternate count is looking for minor 5-[C]-P4 to break the 1265.64 low in late June and set the P4 bottom.  The targets for the completion of P4 are the 1245/1257 pivots and the  H&S pattern target of 1253.

Support is at 1280 and then the 1257 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1291 and 1303 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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