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June 14th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on June 14, 2011

11:30 am EST:  And finally here is the updated 4-hr chart, showing that a MACD bull-cross is about to take place from extremely oversold levels.

SP-500 4-hr chart (10:52 am):

11:15 am EST:  Here is how things looks on the updated 60-min chart.  Notice the strong 60-min MACD bull cross with positive divergence that I mentioned yesterday afternoon.

SP-500 60-min chart (11:10 am):

11:00 am EST:   Bullish Boo-Ya!  This is the day, I’ve been patiently waiting for as I gathered the highest quality pecans along the path lower. 🙂  

Primary count (white) is that P4 ended at 1265.64 on Monday June 13th.   The first minute wave (1) of minor 1 of major [1] of Primary 5 (P5) is underway.  The target for iii-(1) is 1290 and we have hit 1289.10 thus far.   Wave iv-(1) should be a shallow pull-back to about 1283 (38%) or 1285 (23%) before v-(1) reaches the 1295 to 1300 area.  I’m looking the MM’s to pin the SP-500 near 1295 on OPEX Friday, June 17th.

The new alternate count (blue) is the large expanded flat off the Feb 18th high of 1344 that we discussed this weekend.  In which case, yesterday’s low of 1265.64 was only the end of minor 3-[C]-P4 and after a bounce for minor 4-[C]-P4 [i.e. likely a double ZZ (w)-(z)-(y)] that stays below the minor 1-[C]-P4 low of 1311.80, minor 5-[C]-P5 will drop to the 1249 area by end of June.   If the 1311.80 level is breached, then this count can be eliminated and P5 is underway towards 1440 over the next 6 to 9 months.

There is yet another alternate count where his P4 is a large contracting triangle off the Feb 18th high of 1344 that just put in a minor C low at 1265.64.   However, this count is less appealing since the Russel-200 breached it’s March low yesterday, which would be a minor C below minor A contracting triangle violation.

Support has moved up to 1280 and then the 1257 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1291 and 1303 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:36 am):

SP-500 15-min chart (10:37 am):

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