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June 10th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 10, 2011

6-12-11 (2:15 pm EST):  Here is the updated weekly chart.  Notice the 50-week SMA at 1226 as of 6-10-11.  It’s very import that this move lower for major [C]-P4 finds support between the 50-week SMA of 1226 and the 200-day SMA of 1254, if not sooner.  And of course the 2+ year lower bull channel support is coming in right in this same 1220 to 1250 area over the next couple of weeks.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD 6-10-11):

4:55 pm EST:  Primary count (white) has been right on track ever since it became the primary count on June 1st.  It looks like the wave (2) of minor 5-[C]-P4 bounce was put in this afternoon at 1279.52, just short of 50% retrace target 1281.  I’m looking for wave (3) to drop to the 1254/1257 area on Monday follow by a sideways wave (4) and final wave (5) down to the 1249 target.   The 1273/1277 gap was closed today and there is just one more gap to close at 1255/1262  from the March 2011 low of 1249.    The Primary count could be finished on Monday and should be wrapped up by Wed, June 15th at the latest.  I’m thinking now we might get a quick resolution on Monday or Tuesday morning via the purple channel vs the slow drop into Wednesday of the yellow channel.  Remember the large H&S pattern of the 1317 high has a target of 1253 and the 200-day SMA is at 1354 at the close today.

The alternate count (blue) is yet again that we have the end of minor 5-[C]-P4 at today’s low of 1268.28.  We can count 5 waves down from the minor 4 high of 1294.54.   The drop to 1270.52 into the close looks scary for this count.  However, it could be deep wave ii retrace, and it would be a nice head-fake before a blast off higher on Monday.  This count would trap a lot of short traders over the weekend who think the 200-day SMA of 1254 will be hit early next week.

Support is at the 1257 pivot and 1255/1262 gap.  Resistance is at the 1291 pivot.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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