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June 9th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 9, 2011

5:15 pm EST:  Today went pretty much as forecast.  For the primary count (white) we got the minor 4 of [C]-P5 38% retrace of minor 3 to the target area of 1393, which actually extended a bit to the 1294.54.    Next up for the primary count is a 40 point drop (where minor 5=1) to 1254 for minor 5-[C]-P4 to complete the P4 correction.  The large Head and Shoulders measures to 1253 and the major [C]=1.62*[A] target is 1249.  The 200-day SMA is at 1252 and there is pivot support at 1245 and 1257, so there is a good deal of confluence of targets in this area.  Confirmation of this count, and invalidation of the alternate count, comes with break below the 1277.42 low.

For the alternate count (blue) that has 1277.42 as the bottom of P4, today’s move to 1294.54 was wave (1) of minor 1-[1]-P5.  I’m expecting a wave (2) retrace of 50% to 1286 and then a wave (3) move to 1316, where (3)=1.62*(1).  This would also form an Inverse Head and Shoulders (ISH) with a head at 1277, neckline at 1295 and measured move of 1313.  The key levels to watch for confirmation of this alternate count, and invalidation of the primary count, are the minor wave 1 low of 1305.61 and the major [A] low of 1311.80.

Support is at the 1273/1277 gap and then the 1257 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1291 pivot and then the 1303 and 1315 pivots.   Note the 150-day SMA is at 1289, right where the market closed today.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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