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June 3rd, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 3, 2011

5:00 pm EST:  Winter (Primary 4 – P4) has arrived.  It’s been a sneaky move down into winter, but now the market appears ready to cascade lower the next couple of weeks.

Primary count (white) is set-up in a minor 1-2, minute (1)-(2) configuration at the close today.  That means a gap down into the heart of a wave (3) of minor 3 of major [C]-P4 beginning on Monday.  The drop will be so severe I can’t show it on my 5 and 15-min charts, so look at the 60-min chart.   A break below the 1291 pivot should confirm this count.   Wave minor 3-[C]-P3 should drop toward the 1257 pivot over the next week.   Not that Minor 3 = 1.62 * Minor 1 at 1354.  The final destination for major [C]-P4 is the March 2010 low of 1249, where [C] = 1.62* [A].  The rising 200-day SMA is at 1248 and the rising 50-week SMA is at 1223 and should make good support zones, as well as the 1245/1257 pivots.  Ultimately the P4 correction must hold above the P1 high of 1219 from April 2010, or else the 2-year bull market is over.

The alternate count (blue) double Zig-Zag for major [4]-P3 should be about over.  The 5-min chart count looks like it could move slightly below today 1297.90 low on Monday.   The limit of this count is 1288, where C=1.62*A of the 2nd Zig-Zag and ideally it should not break the 1291 pivot.  If this alternate count holds up on Monday June 6th, it should set-up the potential for a double top near 1371 for major [5]-P3 in early to mid-July.  This would be very nice trade bottom, if the 1291 pivot support can hold.  The April 2010 low of 1295 could also hold as support and trigger the move higher in major [5]-P3.

Support is at the 1291 pivot and then the 1257 and 1245 pivots.  Resistance is at the 1303 and 1315 pivots.

Enjoy the weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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