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June 1st, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 1, 2011

6:10 pm EST:  The SP-500 is technically in the worse shape it’s been in near 1 year.   The SP-500 closed well under the 13-day EMA, 34-day EMA, and 50-day SMA cluster at 1330.  And the 13-day EMA has produced a bear cross under the 34-day EMA.  Also on the SP-500 daily chart, the RSI (14), MACD and Full-Sto Ocsillators are all in bear territory and headed lower.

The orignal alternate count (red) is now the primary count (white).  Major [C]-P4 down began today from yesterday’s high of 1345.20.  We are working on the minor 1 wave down, which looks to be half-way through minute (3) with a target area of 1305 tomorrow.  And I’m expecting minor 1 to end around 1298 on Friday.  From there minor 2 could bounce to the 1315 pivot before minor 3 heads for the 1257 pivot area.  Ultimately, I have the major [C]-P4 correction hitting the 1249 target, where [C]=1.62*[A].   Major [A]-P4 is labeled as a leading diagonal (LD) off the P3 high of 1371 on May 2nd and the major [B]-P4 wave bounced 62% to 1345, which is typical of a LD wave bounce.  A less severe target for [C] is where [C]=[A] at 1286.  And if P4 were to drop below 1249 and breach the P1 high of 1219, the entire 2 year bull market rally will have terminated.  A lot will be at stake this summer during final stages of the P4 correction.

The only bullish alternate count I think is reasonable is a major [4]-P3 triangle that is completing it’s minor E leg at the 1315 pivot. So today’s dop to 1313.71 should end the E wave or maybe a bit of over-throw tomorrow morning to touch the 1311.80 low from May 25th.  If this count is correct, then there is still a possibility of major [5]-P3 rally to the triangle target of 1390 over the next few weeks.   This count can be ruled out with a breach of 1311.80 or the C-wave low.

Support at the 1303 and 1291 pivots.  Resistance as the 1315 pivot and then the moving average cluster around 1330.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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