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May 5th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 5, 2011

5:55 pm EST:  With the definitive breach of the 1339.46 level, the new primary count is that major [C]-P4 down is underway after major [B]-P4 topped at 1370.58 on Monday, May 2nd.   Primary Wave 4 (P4) appears to be tracing out a an expanded flat that began on Feb 18th at the top of P3.  The major [A]-P4 leg was a 95 point drop from 1344 to 1249 on March 16th.  The major [B]-P4 leg was a 122 point rise from 1249 to 1317, for roughly [B]=1.23*[A].  The [C]-P4 drop should be between the [C]=[A]=1276 and [C]=1.62*[A]=1217 targets.  I think P4 will end somewhere in the middle around the 1247/1257 pivot support area by the end of June or early July.  This [C]-P4 drop will be a test of the lower Bull Chanel line (light blue) on the Daily Chart and the 200-day SMA (setting at 1225 today).

The negative divergence of Dr Copper with the SP-500 price has been indicating the SP-500 has been in P4 since Feb 18th, but we were not listening (see Daily Candle chart below with JJC as a Dr Copper Proxy).    In the last few days, this has been more clear and I have been warning the intermediate top may be in place at 1370.58 since EOD on Tuesday, May 3rd (SP-500 at 1356).

It looks like today may have begun the minute (1) of  minor 3-[C] leg drop, which is projected to reach the 1315/1320 area.  Ultimately, I think 3-[C] will target 1269, where minor 3=2.62*1.

Support is at the 1313/1319 gap and the 1315 pivot.   Resistance is at the 1339/1344 area and then the 1363 pivot.

“Sell the Rips !!!”

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart  (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles  with JJC (EOD):

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