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May 5th, 2011: Update 1 – Pre-market

Posted by pugsma on May 5, 2011

8:20 am EST:  ES Futures dropped to 1336.25 (1339.25 cash equiv.) and have breached the minor 1 wave high of ES 1336.50.  ES is trading at 1338 (1341 cash equiv.) in the pre-market.

If the SP-500 cash market breaks the 1339.46 minor 1 wave high intra-day today, it will have bearish implications going forward.  It could even mean that the top of Primary 3 is in at 1370.58 from Monday, May 2nd.   Or at the very least, this could at least mean the Ending Diagonal (ED) count for major [5[-P3 is playing out with a chance of only a slightly higher high that 1370.58 or even a truncation/double top.

Assuming yesterday’s low of 1341.50 breaks in the cash market this morning, then it looks like minor 4 will follow my alternate count and put in a triple ZZ down to the  50% retrace target of 1333 today.

Dr Copper has now completely broken down below 4.10 support and has touched 4.o0 overnight.  Dr Copper could be headed for the 3.60 area.  Dr Copper appears to already be in a possible P4 count and could be leading the SP-500 in that direction.   Oil is putting in a bearish 3 black crow daily candle pattern in the Futures and as I mentioned last night in my comments the Russel-2000 has already put in the bearish 3 black crow pattern on the daily chart yesterday.   Small caps are leading the market lower, as well as Dr Copper.

Support is at 1339, then the 1331/1335 gap area and the 1315 pivot.  Resistance at the 1363 pivot then the 1372 pivot.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD 5-4-11):

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