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Apr 21st, 2011: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on April 21, 2011

12:30 pm EST:  And here is the updated 4-hour chart with the alternate (blue labels) of major [5]-P3 as an Ending Diagonal (ED) completing at 1367 in mid-May.  Primary Wave 4 (P4) would likely drop back to where the ED began at 1249 (1257 pivot area).  And the early 2011 forecast for Primary Wave 5 (P5) would be reduced to the 1440 pivot area.  Just something to thing above if we don’t get the strong surge upward toward 1430 going into June.  The May-August time frame is typically weak and choppy (thus the old Stock Market Adage: Sell in May and Go Away).

SP-500 4-hour chart (12:28 pm):

11:55 am EST:  Since it’s a slow day, I thought I would look into an option if this major [5]-P3 wave stalls going into May.  On this 60-min chart, here is one of the alternates (blue labels) that I’m looking at where this major wave [5]-P3 dies a slow death as an Ending Diagonal (ED) at the major [5]=[1] target of 1367 by mid-May.  If we don’t see a decisive break of the IHS neck-line at 1340/1344 with a strong push up to 1380/1400 by early May, then this could be the correct count.

SP-500 60-min chart (11:33 am):

10:50 am EST:  Maybe a small wave 4 within wave v-(1) is playing out here this morning.  And there will be one more push up for 5-v-(1).

SP-500 5-min chart (10:48 am):

10:30 am EST: After the initial rise to the 1336.41 high this morning, the SP-500 back-tested the 1331/1333 gap up open support I mentioned in the pre-market update.   And now the SP-500 is catching a bid again.   There are two likely targets for completion of wave v-(1):  1338, where v=0.62*i or 1343, where v=i.    I have added this to the 5-min chart along with the likely wave (2) pull-back targets for each.

It will be very telling on the wave (2) pull-back,  just how strong this bull move up off 1295 really is.  If the wave (2) pull-back is more shallow than the 38% retrace, then the move is very strong.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:20 am):

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