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Mar 25th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 25, 2011

Premium Service Enrollment for Q2-2011 (April 1st to June 30th) is NOW OPEN until March 31st.  You can read about the service description (there have been some changes), the requirement to sign the TOS Agreement and sign-up information here:  http://pugsma.com/pug-premium-sign-up/  FYI, as a small bonus I will provide the March Password to new subscribers as soon as they sign-up and make payment for Q2-2011.

Looks like the “Pressure Dropped” on the Perma-Bear Blogs today as they have all gone bullish.  Nice of them tell their readers about it 7 days too late.  Enjoy this classic Joe Strummer of The Clash cover of  “Pressure Drop”.

In sympathy for the Perma-Bears who  truly “Missed the Boat” on this 2-year bull market.  Here is a tribute song from Modest Mouse.  🙂

4:30 pm EST:  It’s been a great week for the bulls.   The SP-500 closed up 34.6 points up +2.7% for the week !!!   The SP-500 has recaptured both the 50-day SMA (1305) and 20-day SMA (1302).  The daily MACD bull-cross was also confirmed today at the close with the histogram also back above the zero line.  Finally the RSI moved back above the neutral level 50 to close at 54.58.

 The price action yesterday and today since breaking above the 1303 pivot indicates that the minor 2 of major [5]-P3 low as likely put in at 1284 and that minor 3 of major [5]-P3 is unfolding.  I’m tracking two counts with this  in mind.  The primary count (white) is that wave (3) of minor 3 is in progress headed for a grind up to 1347, where (3)=2.62*(1).   The alternate count (blue) is that wave (1) of minor 3 finished today at 1319 and wave (2) will back-test the 1303 pivot break-out early next week.   Both counts are headed to a target area of 1367, where major [5]=[1].   The inverse head and shoulders (IHS) pattern off the 1249 low, has a sloping neckline at 1308 to 1303, a measurement of 59 point and a target of 1298 + 59  => 1357.

I have also added one additional alternate count to keep and eye on if there is a deeper correction below the 1303 pivot in the coming days.   This count is shown on the 60-min chart, as a very large major [4]-P3 contracting triangle that would  have finished up the minor B leg today at 1319.  The next move in this count is a minor C leg drop to about 1273, which would close the open gaps between 1273 and 1282.  This triangle would take most of April to play-out before major [5]-P3 headed to new highs above 1344 in May/June.   I give this count a low probability at the moment, but if a bearish move down develops next week that breaks key support at 1303, then it’s definitely in-play.

Have a nice weekend !!!

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hour chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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