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Mar 24th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 24, 2011

Premium Service Enrollment for Q2-2011 (April 1st to June 30th) is NOW OPEN until March 31st.  You can read about the service description (there have been some changes), the requirement to sign the TOS Agreement and sign-up information here:  http://pugsma.com/pug-premium-sign-up/  FYI, as a small bonus I will provide the March Password to new subscribers as soon as they sign-up and make payment for Q2-2011.

4:20 pm EST:  Today went as predicted.  The target area forecast was 1309 to 1314 and the SP-500 hit 1311.34.   The SP-500 closed above the 50-day SMA of 1304 and the daily MACD signal produced a “bull cross” above it’s moving average.   A second consecutive daily close tomorrow with the MACD in this configuration is a “buy” long signal and favors my bullish alternate count below.

The primary count (white) is that wave (5) of minor 1 of major [5]-P3 finished at 1311.43 or could run a little higher to the 1315 pivot.  The target area for the minor 2-[5]-P3 retrace is 1290 to 1274 for a 38% to 62% retrace fo minor 1. From there, minor 3-[5]-P3 will head to new highs above 1344.

The more bullish primary count (blue) already has minor 3 of major [5]-P3 underway.  Today’s high of 1311.58 would complete wave (1) of 3-[5]-P3 or it could push just a little higher to the 1315 pivot.   From there wave (2) of minor 3 should retrace to between 1300 and 1295 for a 50% to 62% retrace of wave (1).   The wave (3) target is 1348, where (3)=1.62(1).  

The 15-min and 60-min charts show how these two counts should play out in price and time.  I’m expecting major [5]-P3 to reach at least 1367, where major [5]=[1] by late April to May.  And the upside suprise target is the cup and handle target of 1430 that could last into June.

Support is at the 1303 pivot and then the 1291 pivot. Resistance is at the 1315 pivot, then the 1315/1320 gap and 1340/1344 gap.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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