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Mar 14th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 14, 2011

4:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 closed back above key 1291 pivot support at 1296.39 and printed a daily hammer candle that is bullish.  Unless the bottom falls out of the SP-500 the next two days, it’s very likely the primary count (white) that has minor 4 of [3]-P3 ending at the 1286 gap area today is correct.  There is just nothing particularly impressive about the move down from 1325.78 to 1286.37 that makes this look like a minute wave (3) of minor C of major [4]-P3 (i.e. alternate count).  Some follow-through the upside above the 1303 pivot tomorrow should help to further solidify the primary count.  And a move back above 1312.59 will kill off the alternate count.

We have positive divergence on the 60-min and 15-min MACD, as well as Dr Copper, with today’s new SP-500 price low.  We should have a McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) positive divergence as well, but we’ll have to wait until 1 hour after the close to know for sure.   The DJIA  Transports are also making higher lows, which is non-conformation of the DJIA new low today and is more bullish positive divergence.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hour chart (EOD):

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