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Mar 10th, 2011: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 10, 2011

6:00 pm EST:  Updated 5-min chart.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

5:00 pm EST:   The primary count (white) is a double Zig-Zag minor 4-[3]-P3 off the 1344 high.  The second ZZ, minute degree wave (y) began from 1332 and is currently in a 5-wave minuette degree decline.  Minor could be complete with a double bottom at 1294, which is the 1291 pivot support.  However, there are also targets at 1285, where v=i and at 1282 where (y)=(w).    There is a gap to fill at 1286 and this could be the target as well.  This minor 4 wave should end very soon (next day or two) and then the up-trend will continue with minor 5-[3]-P3 making a new high above 1344 going into April/May.  The duration of 3 to 4 weeks for this minor 4 wave should be similar to the minor 2 wave from 1227 to 1173 in November 2010.

The alternate count (red) is that a major wave [4]-P3 is unfolding fo the major [3]-P3 high of 1344.  For a major degree wave we should expect a little more time to elapse and a deeper retrace as it’s correcting the large major [3] wave move from 1040 to 1344.   Minor wave C of major 4 is currently underway off of 1332.   Minor C should be a 5-wave move and today began the minute wave (3) decline.  The first target for wave (3) is 1273, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Wave (3) should complete tomorrow or early next week and wave (4) should re-test the 1291 or 1303 pivot area.  The final destination for (5) of minor C maybe the 1257 pivot area or where C=1.62*A at 1251.  The 23% retrace target is 1274 and the 38% retrace target is 1228.   So 1274 is my minimum target and 1228 is my maximum.  Once the major [4]-P3 decline is over in late March to early April, I expect the major [5]-P3 wave should carry the SP-500 to the 1363 to 1440 pivot area by May/June.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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