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Feb 25th, 2011: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on February 25, 2011

7:05 am EST:   ES Futures rose to 1313 (1315 cash equiv.) overnight and are trading around 1311 (1313 cash equiv.) pre-market.

Primary count is that wave  iii-(1) of minor 5 of [3]-P3 is underway.  The target area is 1327 (where iii=1.62*i).  And the wave v-(1) target is 1335/1344.   The minor 5 target area is 1400 to 1430 by April/May.

The alternate count is that wave (b) of minor 4 of [3]-P3 is underway.  The target area is 1319, which is a 50% retrace of (a).  But the (b) wave move could fail at the 1315 pivot resistance. From there wave (c) should drop 50 points to the 1269 area to complete minor 4.

Support is at the 1303 pivot and then the 1291 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1315 pivot, then the 1344 previous high.

It looks like a potential a “gap and go” break-out higher today.  Dr Copper also broke-out upward overnight.  A close back above the 1315 pivot support today would be a bullish outcome and would be consistent with the primary count.   A failure at the 1315 pivot and close below it would favor the alternate count outcome.   But keep in mind it could take a couple of days to break the 1315 pivot resistance for the bullish primary count.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ed1f44f0-9469-42a3-adff-65c9782794df

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=70fd67d4-921c-4a58-afef-776ccb40093d

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD, 2-24-11):

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