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Feb 17th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 17, 2011

5:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 hit a new recovery high of 1341.50 and closed at a new closing high of 1340.43.  So are we there yet?    The top of 3-[3]-P3?    Well, sorta of.   In my opinion top was either today or will be tomorrow/Tuesday.    And I don’t expect the SP-500 to move much above about 1345 in either case.

 The primary count can’t exceed 1341.78 and the top of the move today was 1341.50, so wave v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 ended today.  The wave 4-[3]-P3 correction targets are in the 1278 to 1303 range over the next 2 to 4 weeks (early to Mid-March).   Likely to play-out as some type of triangle.

For the alternate count (blue) I have changed to an ending diagonal (ED) for wave v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3.     This ED is a series of 3-wave moves with W1 > W3 > W 5.   And so far we have completed W3 of ED at 1341.50 which is 10.50 point move and shorter than the 13.00 point move of W1.   I’m looking for W4 to hit about 1334/1336 tomorrow and then W5 to hit about 1344 to 1346 to complete 3-[3]-P3.   Same forecast for the 4-[3]-P3 correction as above in the primary count.

There could be a 2nd alternate count that is much more bullish, where the SP-500 has a “gap up and go” tomorrow and head right for the 1363 pivot resistance.  This would be more like my original alternate count from today.  So keep that on your radar too.  But the nature of the waves here the past two days look more like 3-wave moves that are much more like and ED and not a wave iii-(5).  That is why I switched the 1st alternate to this ED count.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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