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Feb 16th, 2011: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 16, 2011

5:30 pm EST:  A new recovery intra-day high of 1337.61 was hit today.  I think there is a reasonably decent probability that the SP-500 topped wave v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 today at 1337.61 or there is one more small push up tomorrow to something under 1342 (maximum of this count).   A couple of my primary topping indicators are telling me this.  First the VIX put in a bullish “hammer” channel today and reserved upward.  Second Dr Copper is made a low today of $4.46, which is as low as Dr Copper was on Jan 31st when the SP-500 was trading at 1275.10.  There is an open gap at 1286 that think might get filled on the minor wave 4-[3]-P3 correction over the next few weeks going into Mid-March.  You can also see a bearish rising wedge with a base near 1295 on the 15-min chart.  We’ll need to see break down through the 1322 to 1325 support zone to confirm the top of 3-[3]-P3 is likely in place.

However we can’t rule out the alternate count (blue) that has wave v-(5) still unfolding off of yesterday’s hold of support at 1324.61 for wave iv-(5).  The price action is still in the bullish green channel and above all key support zones.  This alternate count has wave 1-v-(5) complete at today’s high of 1337.61 and wave 2-v-(5) underway.  This wave 2-v-(5) might play out as a flat that tests the 1328 to 1330 gap support one more time, as it looks like today’s drop to 1330 was a 3-wave move down and 3-wave move back up to 1337.  Therefore we should see a 5-wave drop to about 1330 tomorrow before wave 3-v-(5) heads for about 1351 (where W3=1.62*W1) and wave 5-v-(5) hits the wave i=v target of 1359 or just about the 1363 pivot resistance.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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