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Feb 15th, 2011: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 15, 2011

5:50 pm EST:   I have simplified the two similar counts into one.  I think there is likely one more high above 1333 for this wave v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3, probably in the 1335 to 1340 range (1342 maximum) over the next day or two.  Today’s price action looked like a wave 4-v-(5) bullish descending triangle that held above 1324/1325 break-out support area.  I’m expecting wave 5-v-(5) to target 1335 (W5=W1) or 1340 (W5=1.62*W1).  The maximum for this count is for wave v-(5) to complete by 1342, so as wave iii-(5) is not the shortest wave.    The key support to hold for continued price advancement is the 1315 pivot and the key price marker to know that this wave up has ended is the wave i-(5) high of 1308.86.  An intra-day move below 1308.86 confirms the end of minor 3-[3]-P3.

Also, a new twist is that I think there is good chance that minor 4-[3]-P3 will play out like a contracting triangle over the course of a few weeks between mid-Feb and mid-March.   The triangle for minor 4 would alternate with the Zig-Zag of minor 2-3]-P3 (i.e Nov 2010 drop from 1227-1173) and hold in the 1291 to 1303 pivot support range.   The lions share of the drop should take place rather quickly in  wave (a) of 4-[3]-P3 drop.   I’m still looking at retrace targets between 1278 (38%) and 1303 (23%).  Wave (a) might reach 1278 and wave (e) might end near 1303.  The wave (4) of 3-[3]-P3 low as 1275 and minor wave 4 may want to reach that area.

After the minor 4-[3]-P3 correction (-3 to -5%), my target for minor 5-[3]-P3 is in the area of the 1430 to 1440 pivot area by mid-to-late May 2011.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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