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Feb 14th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 14, 2011

6:25 pm EST:    For the primary count I have wave v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 complete this afternoon at 1332.96 (where v=0.62*i) with a small bearish rising wedge to finish off wave 5 of v-(5).   I’m expecting wave (a) of 3-[4]-P3 to head for the 1303 pivot for the next week.  The completed wave 4-[3]-P3 target range is 1296 to 1272 (23% to 38% retrace of 3-[3]-P3).   This primary count can not be confirmed until there is intra-day trade below the wave i-(5) high of 1308.86.  And if this primary count is not yet complete at 1333 and wave 5 of v-(5) decides to extend tomorrow, then it can not exceed 1342, so as wave iii-(5) is not the shortest.  Exceeding 1342 mean that the alternate count is in play.

For the alternate count (blue) I have wave iii-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 complete today at 1332.96.   The wave iv-(5) targets are 1324 to 1319 (23% to 38%) retrace of iii-(5).    Note the 1323.51 area would take the SP-500 back to the base of the small bearish rising wedge and make a good wave iv-(5) target.   The wave v-(5) targets are 1346 (where v=0.62*i) and 1359 (where wave v=i).  Once the top of 3-[3]-P3 is reached between 1346 and 1359 (i.e. just below the 1363 pivot resistance), then for wave 4-[3]-P3 I have a target range of 1316 to 1288 (23% to 38% retrace of 3-[3]-P3).

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP0500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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