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Feb 11th, 2011: Update 4 – Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on February 11, 2011

3:00 pm EST:  Looks at the 60-min chart below and notice how this impulsive minor 3 of major [3] of primary P3 wave has “accelerated” from the purple channel to the steeper light blue channel and now the steepest green channel.  Classic wave 3 price action.

SP-500 60-min chart (2:54 pm):

2:15 pm EST:  The primary count just needs one more high above 1328.80 for wave 5-v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 to considered complete.  Could come later today or Monday.  I still have 1333 as the v=0.62*i target.  The maximum for wave v-(5)  is 1342, based on the primary count so as wave iii-(5) does not become the shortest wave in the impulse.

I think the best way to count the bullish alternate count (blue) is not how I had it labeled at mid-day, but rather this way.  The next high above 1329 (i.e. 1333 to 1342) should be the end of wave iii-(5) and then there will be a wave iv-(5) retrace to about 1325 followed by a v-(5) run up the 1363.  The important thing this count has going for it, is that wave iii-(5) will be longer than wave i-(5) and that makes it a more typical E-wave impulse.  So this alternate count is looking very good.  And it would be very satisfying in E-wave terms to see wave 3-[3]-P3 peak our near the 1363 pivot in a parabolic move that began in early Feb.

SP-500 5-min chart (2:03 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (2:04 pm):

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