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Feb 9th, 2011: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 9, 2011

4:55 pm EST:  Things certainly got more interesting for the bears as a potential top of v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 could be in place at 1325.  We can count 5 waves down from 1325 to 1315 if we assume the move was a leading diagonal (LD) for wave  i-(a) of 4-[3]-P3.  LD’s, like ED’s are allows to have w4 into w1 overlap.   If this alternate count (blue) is correct, then a 62% to 78% retrace from i-(a) to  ii-(a) should reach 1321 to 1323  before  a complete collapse in wave iii-(a) down to about 1299 (iii=2.6*i).   Note 1321 was hit into the close today, so the wave iii-(a) sell-off could begin overnight and accellerate tomorrow.  My target for (a) is near the 1291 pivot, wave (b) the 1303 pivot and wave (c) the 1267 to 1275 area to complete 4-[3]-P3 over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

But, the bulls have some hope of a new high above 1325 as well.  The primary count (white) is that wave iv-(5) played out as a double Zig-Zag that ended today at 1315.   The next move from v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 could reach the 1336 area, where v=0.62*i.   This primary count could mean bullish OPEX week  next week to complete the wave 3-[3]-P3 move up.

The key is the 1315 pivot and then the 1308.86 wave i-(5) high.  As long as both these levels continue to hold, the primary count for new highs above 1325 must be maintained as the most probable outcome.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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