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Feb 2nd, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 2, 2011

5:05 pm EST:   For the primary count (white) it looks wave iv-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 played out today.  Could be over or needs one more dip to 1298 for c-iv-(5) tomorrow morning.   The target for wave v-(5) is the 1315 pivot area. From there I’m expecting wave 4-[3]-P3 to retrace to the 1257 pivot area.

Things are little unclear with the markets at this junction.  Thus we need to keep both a more bullish and more bearish alternate count on our radar.

The first alternate count (blue) is the more bullish option that these first 5-waves up off the 1275.10 wave (4) low will be only be wave i-(5) and a retrace to 1290/1295 for wave ii-(5) will follow. From there waves iii-(5) and v-(5) will target the 1363 pivot area to complete 3-[3]-P3.

The second alternate count (red) is the more bearish option that major degree wave [1]-P3 is ending here near the 1315 pivot and major degree wave [2]-P3 will be a significant retrace to the 1200 to 1220 area.

A key area to watch is the 1291 pivot support (also the 13-day EMA) for discerning the more bullish first alternate count (blue)  from the other to counts that call from a larger correction to at least the 1257 pivot (primary – white) or even the 1219 pivot (2nd alternate – red).  A break and close below 1291 should signal a trend change  from up to down in the near term.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500  15-mnin chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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