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Jan 28th, 2011: Update 3 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2011

2:15 pm EST:  I suspect this weekend the fear monger’s will be out on the blogs talking about the similarity to the April 2010 top and the pending “Flash Crash” drop to 1100 that is coming to the SP-500 next week.  In fact we’ve already seen a few of those comment here.  But just keep in mind fear never helps anyone trade the market.  Keep a level head and watch for key support and resistance levels.  The 50-day SMA (currently at 1247 and rising) is a key level to watch, along with the 1245/1257 pivot area.  The 50-day SMA area of 1173 supported the Nov 2010 correction and lead to a 130 point SP-500 rise to 1303.   If the 1245/1257 pivot area holds this correction, then I’m looking for another 100+ point rally towards 1352 by late April.   

Right now the 20-day SMA of 1279 seems to be supporting the current drop from going much lower.  Even though I still thin 1270 is likely for wave (a) of 4-[3]-P3.

SP-500 Daily Candles (2:00 pm):

1:00 pm EST:  Updated 5-min chart, with best guess at the minuette wave count.  Primary count has wave (a) of 4-[3]-P3 bottoming near 1270 on Monday.  Alternate count has wave (a) bottomed today at 1276.55.  In both cases the (b) wave should test resistance at 1287 area.   It just a matter of how fast this minor wave 4-[3]-P3 correction will play out.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6b6b5ec7-ce5b-4fa1-aa5f-120b2b07becb

SP-500 5-min chart (12:55 pm):

12:40 pm EST:  Well, we found the top of v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 at the 1303 pivot resistance.  Minute degree wave (a) of 4-[3]-P3 has begun and I’m looking for wave 5-wave down to the test the 1270 area to complete wave (a).  Wave (b) should bounce about 50% to the 1287 area and wave (c) should drop to 1254, if (c)=(a).  Also the 38% retrace target for wave 4-[3]-P3 resides at 1254.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c93fa75b-e051-4007-9b11-140d4b5ce037

SP-500 15-min chart (12:30 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (12:30 pm):

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