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Jan 27th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 27, 2011

7:55 pm EST:  Big changes tonight.  I’m scrapping the major wave [2]-P3 count calling for a -10% correction down to 1190 to 1213.   I have looked over the week and monthly charts and strength of the RSI and MACD oscillators tell the story that this is a wave 3-[3]-P3.  The weekly RSI has been above 70 for amost 1 month, that is a screaming sign of a 3-[3]-P3 wave.   The major degree wave [2]-P3 low was at 1040 back in late August 2010.  The SP-500 has been in major degree wave [3]-P3 since then.  The Nov 2010 correction was a minor wave 2-[3]-P3 and since early Dec 2010 the market as been impulsing higher in minor wave 3-[3]-P3.  This wave 3-[3]-P3 has been setting all types of bullish stock market records (i.e. days above moving averages, etc.) since early December.   What we are looking for now is the end of wave 3-[3]-P3 and I think we are close.  I’m thinking it will end here at either the 1303 pivot or the 1315 pivot in the few days to a week (i.e. early February).  Then we’ll have a mild wave 4-[3]-P3 correction (i.e 23 to 35% retrace) that will hold above the 1257 pivot going into late February.  From there, 5-[3]-P3 should reach the 1363 to 1370 pivot area in late April to early May.  It’s all laid out on the update charts below.   And I’m still looking for a level of 1500 to 1550 for the end of Primary Wave P3 by Oct 2011.

The primary count is that wave iii-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 is finishing up in the area of the 1303 pivot.  I’m expecting wave iv-(5) to hold above the 1291 pivot and wave v-(5) to reach the 1315 pivot next week.

The slight alternate to this primary count is that wave iii-(5) end at 1299, wave iv-(5) at 1294 and wave v-(5) ended today at 1301.23 or will end tomorrow at 1303/1306.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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