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Jan 25th, 2011: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 25, 2011

5:20 pm EST:  Today’s late day surge of 10 points to close above the 1291 pivot at 1291.18 indicates a new high above 1296.06 is very likely over the course of the next day or two.  The preliminary target is 1300, where (5)=(1) for Minor 5 of [1]-P3.  Stretch targets are the 1303 and 1315 pivot resistance.  The primary count is that iii-(5) of 5-[1]-P3 got underway during the final hour of trading.  Once this wave (5) completes, I’m still expecting a significant pull-back for major degree wave [2]-P3.  The targets are 1213 (30% retrace) to 1190 (385) by the end of February.

But things are getting real interesting on the ultra-bullish count now and the threat of a continued aggressive market advance into the spring to early summer is very real.  As I showed in mid-Dec of 2010, there is ultra-bullish count that has the SP-500 already in wave 3-[3]-P3 since the late Nov 2011 low of 1173.   In this case the move to 1300 will only be wave (1) of 3-[3]-P3 and we should be looking for a much smaller pull-back to the 1257 pivot area for wave (2) of 3-[3]-P3 before wave (3) of 3-[3]-P3 blasts off towards  1400 to 1425 by late April to early May.  This count is now shown as the alternate (blue) count on the charts.  And it has a much higher probably now as the market continues to show limited pull-backs and sides-ways correction.  I would put this ultra-bullish count on nearly equal probability with the primary count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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